Worldwide Parkinson's cases will double in next 25 years

University of Rochester Medical Center>> Worldwide Parkinson's cases will double in next 25 years> Disease burden greatest in developing countries>> The number of individuals with Parkinson's disease in 15 of the world's> largest nations will double over the next generation, according to a study> published in the January 30 issue of the journal Neurology. The study> highlights the significant challenge facing countries with rapidly growing> economies, particularly in Asia, many of which are ill prepared to meet> this impending public health threat.>> In recent years, a great deal of resources and energy have been focused on> confronting infectious diseases such as HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis.> This is highlighted by high-profile private investments in these areas by> organizations such as the Gates Foundation. However, while infectious> diseases have attracted the greatest attention from international donors,> it is non-communicable chronic diseases, such as Parkinson's, that> represent a far greater burden in terms of economic and social cost to> developing nations.>> University of Rochester neurologist Ray Dorsey, M.D., and a team of> researchers examined the projected population growth in the five largest> countries in Western Europe (France, Spain, Germany, the United Kingdom,> and Italy) and the 10 most populous nations worldwide (China, India,> Indonesia, the United States, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria,> Japan, and Russia). They then projected the prevalence of the disease by> age group in each country. Their research estimates that the number of> individuals with Parkinson's disease in these 15 countries will grow from> 4.1 to 8.7 million by the year 2030. While the number of individuals with> the disease will nearly double in the United States to 610,000, the> greatest growth will occur in developing countries in Asia. By 2030, an> estimated 5 million people in China will have the disease.>> "The bulk of the growth in Parkinson's disease in the next 25 years will> not be in the United States and Europe but in other places, namely China,> where Parkinson's may not be viewed as a major public health problem,"> said Dorsey. "Moreover, this growth will occur in societies where there is> very limited infrastructure in place to diagnose individuals, much less> address their medical needs or the societal impact.">> Parkinson's disease is a degenerative disorder of the central nervous> system that impairs motor skills and walking. Despite the fact that the> disease is treatable with a combination of medications, therapy and> exercise, many individuals in the developing world do not receive> appropriate care and may not even be aware of their diagnosis. Dorsey and> his colleagues noted that in door-to-door surveys in Bolivia, for example,> none of the individuals who were found to have Parkinson's disease had> ever seen a physician for their problem.>> The growth in chronic diseases such as Parkinson's is one of the> unfortunate byproducts of development. Economic growth and the> corresponding improvements in health care and education are increasing the> life expectancy of individuals in the developing world. In terms of the> rise in chronic diseases, the key factor is not overall population growth> but rather the number of people over age 65 and thus at risk of developing> Parkinson's and other chronic conditions. Furthermore, as income grows, so> too does health care spending which, in turn, increases the duration of> illness and the overall number of people with a particular disease.>> Without the proper systems of medical treatment and social support,> chronic diseases can cause significant economic displacement in the form> of lost productivity. According to the World Health Organization, China,> India, and Russia could forego between $200 billion and $550 billion in> national income over the next 10 years as a result of only three chronic> diseases: heart disease, stroke and diabetes. Furthermore, 60 percent of> deaths worldwide are the result of chronic disease, more than double all> infectious diseases, maternal and infant conditions, and nutritional> deficiencies combined.>> "Understanding and predicting the burden of disease is critical to guiding> future health, social and economic policy," said Dorsey. "The challenge> for these developing countries that currently don't have the> infrastructure in place to care for the small burden they have now is how> they will develop this capacity over time recognizing that the costs will> grow.">> http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-01/uorm-wpc012907.php>